Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–98

Kevin Lee () and Kalvinder Shields

Manchester School, 2000, vol. 68, issue s1, 75-91

Abstract: Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure trend output in the manufacturing sector. This measure is compared with alternative trend measures obtained using aggregate manufacturing sector data only.

Date: 2000
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