Infrequent Shocks, Output Persistence and Economic Growth

Massimo Caruso

Manchester School, 2004, vol. 72, issue 2, 243-260

Abstract: The robustness of the relationship between the persistence of output fluctuations and trend growth is evaluated. The analysis introduces discontinuities in output processes and examines the role of convergence across countries. Breaking trends influence the world distribution of permanent shocks and evidence is presented on persistent differences in output patterns associated with both the catching‐up process and technological progress. Overall, a positive correlation between output persistence and growth is confirmed. These results indicate that documenting and interpreting how the characteristics of the business cycle are related to long‐run growth is an important topic that deserves further attention in the profession.

Date: 2004
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