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Breaks in the UK Household Sector Money Demand Function

Rakesh Bissoondeeal, Michail Karoglou and Andy Mullineux

Manchester School, 2014, vol. 82, 47-68

Abstract: type="main">

We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the S imple S um and D ivisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on D ivisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.

Date: 2014
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