Currency returns and systematic risk

Fernanda Gonçalves, Giuliano Ferreira, Alex Ferreira and Pedro Scatimburgo

Manchester School, 2022, vol. 90, issue 6, 609-647

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between currency excess returns and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model. GDPs are observable systematic risk factors in our asset pricing equations. The correlation between the unobservable systematic factors is explored by Seemingly Unrelated Regressions estimations. The sample comprises the period from 1999:M01 to 2019:M12 and 48 countries. Results show that GDP growth risk is significant for most currency pairs and portfolios. We also find that they are priced in the cross‐section of excess returns. Furthermore, currency returns are directly affected by regional business cycles (Europe, America, and Asia).

Date: 2022
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