EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Can Existing Consumption Functions Forecast Consumer Spending in the Late 1980's?

Alan Carruth and Andrew Henley ()

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1990, vol. 52, issue 2, 211-22

Abstract: The recent failure to predict the strong growth in consumer spending and decline in the savings ratio in the United Kingdom has prompted a number of economic forecasters to reassess the basis of their consumer expenditure relationships. This paper assesses the failure of the traditional Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo, and Hendry and Ungern-Sternberg specifications and show that a Hendry and Ungern-Sternberg specification applied to the LBS definition of consumer spending forecasts the period 1985-87 remarkably well. The treatment of asset stocks, particularly the inclusion of housing wealth in the definition of personal wealth, and the link with durable spending have an important bearing on this improvement in forecasting performance. Copyright 1990 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Date: 1990
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:obuest:v:52:y:1990:i:2:p:211-22

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0305-9049

Access Statistics for this article

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Christopher Adam, Anindya Banerjee, Christopher Bowdler, David Hendry, Adriaan Kalwij, John Knight and Jonathan Temple

More articles in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics from Department of Economics, University of Oxford Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-24
Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:52:y:1990:i:2:p:211-22