Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

1969 - 2024

Current editor(s): Christopher Adam, Anindya Banerjee, Christopher Bowdler, David Hendry, Adriaan Kalwij, John Knight and Jonathan Temple

From Department of Economics, University of Oxford
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Volume 86, month 10, 2024

Fence off Black Swans: The Economics of Insurance for Vaccine Injury pp. 995-1025

Ze Chen, Bingzheng Chen and Yu Mao

A Green Wave in Media: A Change of Tack in Stock Markets pp. 1026-1057

Marie Bessec and Julien Fouquau

Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty pp. 1058-1088

Eduardo Gutiérrez, Aitor Lacuesta and César Martín‐Machuca

What Drives House Prices in Europe? pp. 1089-1121

Federica Ciocchetta, Elisa Guglielminetti and Alessandro Mistretta

Effects of Grandmothers' Proximity on Mothers' Labour Force Participation* pp. 1122-1162

Pelin Akyol and Zeynep Yılmaz

Does Self‐employment Pay? The Role of Unemployment and Earnings Risk pp. 1163-1197

Joaquín García‐Cabo and Rocio Madera

Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers pp. 1198-1229

Terhi Maczulskij

Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia pp. 1230-1259

Samuel Lordemus, Noemi Kreif and Rodrigo Moreno‐Serra

Multivariate Trend‐Cycle‐Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations pp. 1260-1289

Jing Tian, Jan Jacobs and Denise R. Osborn

Averaging Estimation for Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression pp. 1290-1312

Xin Liu

Volume 86, month 08, 2024

What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable pp. 743-760

Jennifer Castle and David Hendry

Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated pp. 761-793

Hoang‐Phuong Do and Aris Spanos

A Factor‐Augmented New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the European Union Countries pp. 794-810

Milda Norkute and Joakim Westerlund

Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter pp. 811-832

Manuel Martins and Fabio Verona

A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID‐19 Pandemic pp. 833-855

Maximo Camacho, Salvador Ramallo and Manuel Ruiz

Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag? pp. 856-870

Masataka Eguchi, Hidekazu Niwa and Takayuki Tsuruga

Inequality in an Equal Society pp. 871-904

Laura Harvey, Jochen O. Mierau and James Rockey

A Semi‐parametric Panel Data Model with Common Factors and Spatial Dependence pp. 905-927

Alexandra Soberon, Antonio Musolesi and Juan M. Rodriguez‐Poo

A Spatial Sample Selection Model pp. 928-950

Yong Bao, Gucheng Li and Xiaotian Liu

The Paper of How: Estimating Treatment Effects Using the Front‐Door Criterion pp. 951-993

Marc Bellemare, Jeffrey R. Bloem and Noah Wexler

Volume 86, month 06, 2024

Opium Price Shocks and Prescription Opioids in the USA* pp. 449-484

Claudio Deiana, Ludovica Giua and Roberto Nisticò

Does Stress Shorten Your Life? Evidence from Parental Bereavement pp. 485-518

Bernhard Schmidpeter

Interpretable Machine Learning Using Partial Linear Models pp. 519-540

Emmanuel Flachaire, Sullivan Hué, Sébastien Laurent and Gilles Hacheme

Do Financial Markets Respond to Populist Rhetoric? pp. 541-567

Cem Çakmakli, Selva Demi̇ralp and Gökhan Şahi̇n Güneş

Firm‐specific Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Brazil pp. 568-605

Tiago Pires, Arek Szydłowski and Shuai Zhao

Impact of Graduating with Honours on Entry Wages of Economics Majors pp. 606-640

Salim Atay, Gunes Asik and Semih Tumen

A Non‐parametric Estimation of Productivity with Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Shocks: The Role of Research and Development (R&D) and Corporate Tax pp. 641-671

Ioannis Bournakis and Mike Tsionas

Global Financial Risk, Equity Returns and Economic Activity in Emerging Countries pp. 672-689

Jaroslav Horvath and Guanyi Yang

Value‐at‐Risk under Measurement Error pp. 690-713

Mohamed Doukali, Xiaojun Song and Abderrahim Taamouti

Solving the Forecast Combination Puzzle Using Double Shrinkages pp. 714-741

Li Liu, Xianfeng Hao and Yudong Wang

Volume 86, month 04, 2024

Drought‐Reliefs and Partisanship pp. 187-208

Federico Boffa, Francisco Cavalcanti, Christian Fons‐Rosen and Amedeo Piolatto

The Effect of Immigration on Occupational Injuries: Evidence from Administrative Data pp. 209-235

Caterina Alacevich and Catia Nicodemo

The impact of import competition from China on firm‐level productivity growth in the European Union pp. 236-256

Klaus Friesenbichler, Agnes Kügler and Andreas Reinstaller

Peer Migration in China pp. 257-313

Yuyu Chen, Ginger Zhe Jin and Yang Yue

Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence From Earnings Calls pp. 314-334

Franz Ruch and Temel Taskin

The Macroprudential Toolkit: Effectiveness and Interactions pp. 335-384

Stephen Millard, Margarita Rubio and Alexandra Varadi

Looking Beyond the Trap: Fiscal Legacy and Central Bank Independence pp. 385-416

Charles de Beauffort

Why Transform Y? The Pitfalls of Transformed Regressions with a Mass at Zero pp. 417-447

John Mullahy and Edward Norton

Volume 86, month 02, 2024

A Brief History of General‐to‐specific Modelling pp. 1-20

David Hendry

Smooth and Abrupt Dynamics in Financial Volatility: The MS‐MEM‐MIDAS pp. 21-43

Luca Scaffidi Domianello, Giampiero Gallo and Edoardo Otranto

Non‐parametric Estimator for Conditional Mode with Parametric Features pp. 44-73

Tao Wang

Partial Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects with Discrete Instruments and Misreported Treatment* pp. 74-100

Santiago Acerenza

Are Economics Conferences Gender‐Neutral? Evidence from Ireland pp. 101-118

Margaret Samahita and Kevin Devereux

Sequencing the COVID‐19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers? pp. 119-136

Max Breitenlechner, Martin Geiger, Daniel Gründler and Johann Scharler

Identifying Politically Connected Firms: A Machine Learning Approach pp. 137-155

Vítězslav Titl, Deni Mazrekaj and Fritz Schiltz

Foetal Exposure to Air Pollution and Students' Cognitive Performance: Evidence from Agricultural Fires in Brazil pp. 156-186

Juliana Carneiro, Matthew Cole and Eric Strobl

Volume 85, month 12, 2023

Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the COVID‐19 Pandemic pp. 1157-1184

Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan and Mallory Yeromonahos

Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom pp. 1185-1210

Era Dabla‐Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli and Jay Rappaport

Job Protection and Mortgage Conditions: Evidence from Italian Administrative Data pp. 1211-1237

Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, Tommaso Oliviero, Zeno Rotondi and Alberto Zazzaro

Physician Connectedness and Referral Choice pp. 1238-1261

Eunhae Shin

Medium‐Run Impacts of Iron‐Fortified School Lunch on Anaemia, Cognition, and Learning Outcomes in India pp. 1262-1294

Liza von Grafenstein, Abhijeet Kumar, Santosh Kumar and Sebastian Vollmer

Early Years Multi‐grade Classes and Pupil Attainment pp. 1295-1319

Daniel Borbely, Markus Gehrsitz, Stuart McIntyre, Gennaro Rossi and Graeme Roy

Projection Estimators for Structural Impulse Responses pp. 1320-1340

Jörg Breitung and Ralf Brüggemann

Information Equivalence among Transformations of Semi‐parametric Nonlinear Panel Data Models pp. 1341-1361

Nicholas Brown

Volume 85, month 10, 2023

How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs? pp. 939-958

Christian Gunadi and Hanbyul Ryu

Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients pp. 959-992

Dario Sansone and Anna Zhu

The UK's Great Demand and Supply Recession* pp. 993-1022

Nick Jacob and Giordano Mion

Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis pp. 1023-1047

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market pp. 1048-1082

Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni and Catalina Martínez Hernández

Testing R&D‐Based Endogenous Growth Models pp. 1083-1110

Peter K. Kruse‐Andersen

Cross‐sectional Gravity Models, PPML Estimation, and the Bias Correction of the Two‐Way Cluster‐Robust Standard Errors pp. 1111-1134

Michael Pfaffermayr

Heteroskedasticity‐Robust Standard Errors for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects pp. 1135-1155

Chirok Han and Hyoungjong Kim

Volume 85, month 08, 2023

Are Girls' and Boys' Cognitive Test Performance in Adolescence Differently Affected by Deprivation at Earlier Ages? pp. 671-691

Le Thuc Duc and Jere Behrman

Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health pp. 692-717

Mochamad Pasha, Marc Rockmore, Chih Ming Tan and Dhanushka Thamarapani

Parents' Separation: What is the Effect on Parents' and Children's Time Investments? pp. 718-754

Hélène Le Forner

Haste Makes No Waste: Positive Peer Effects of Classroom Speed Competition on Learning pp. 755-772

Hikaru Kawarazaki, Minhaj Mahmud, Yasuyuki Sawada and Mai Seki

Selective Mortality and the Long‐Term Effects of Early‐Life Exposure to Natural Disasters pp. 773-804

Margaret Triyana and Xing Xia

Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom pp. 805-829

Huw Dixon, Jeremy Franklin and Stephen Millard

The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter pp. 830-858

Yasuharu Iwata and Hirokuni Iiboshi

Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe pp. 859-893

Martin Feldkircher and Helene Schuberth

Asymptotic Behavior of Temporal Aggregation in Mixed‐Frequency Datasets pp. 894-909

Cleiton Taufemback

Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots pp. 910-937

Ye Chen, Jian Li and Qiyuan Li

Volume 85, month 06, 2023

Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty pp. 457-481

Ana Beatriz Galvão and James Mitchell

Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes pp. 482-513

Emily Whitehouse, David I. Harvey and Stephen J. Leybourne

Estimation of Panel Data Models with Mixed Sampling Frequencies pp. 514-544

Yimin Yang, Fei Jia and Haoran Li

Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices pp. 545-573

Angelica Gianfreda, Francesco Ravazzolo and Luca Rossini

Variable Screening and Model Averaging for Expectile Regressions pp. 574-598

Yundong Tu and Siwei Wang

Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections pp. 599-622

Hai-Anh Dang and Peter Lanjouw

Selection Bias in Housing Price Indexes: The Characteristics Repeat Sales Approach* pp. 623-637

Daniel Melser

Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel pp. 638-670

Clara De Luigi, Martin Feldkircher, Philipp Poyntner and Helene Schuberth

Volume 85, month 04, 2023

The All‐Gap Phillips Curve pp. 269-282

James McNeil and Gregor Smith

Complete Theory for CCE Under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors pp. 283-303

Ovidijus Stauskas

Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Likelihood Approach pp. 304-330

Juan Carlos Parra‐Alvarez, Olaf Posch and Mu‐Chun Wang

Productivity and Performance: A GMM approach pp. 331-344

Mike G. Tsionas and Subal Kumbhakar

Identification Robust Empirical Evidence on the Open Economy IS‐Curve pp. 345-372

Qazi Haque and Leandro Magnusson

Does one size fit all in the non‐profit donation production function? pp. 373-402

Teresa Harrison, Daniel Henderson, Deniz Ozabaci and Christopher A. Laincz

Estimating Case‐based Individual and Social Learning in Corporate Tax Avoidance pp. 403-434

Minjie Huang, Shunan Zhao and Andreas Pape

Does Competition Increase or Decrease Price Dispersion? Insights from One‐Way vs. Round‐Trip Airfares* pp. 435-455

Myongjin Kim, Leilei Shen and Qi Ge

Volume 85, month 02, 2023

Same‐Sex Marriage Legalization and Sexually Transmitted Infections Across Europe* pp. 35-69

Dimitrios Nikolaou

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations pp. 70-94

Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro and Boris Blagov

Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy‐SVARs Robust?* pp. 95-122

Giovanni Angelini, Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo and Luca Fanelli

Exploring Okun's law asymmetry: An endogenous threshold logistic smooth transition regression approach pp. 123-158

Dimitris Christopoulos, Peter McAdam and Elias Tzavalis

Productivity Slowdown in Japan's Lost Decades: How Much of It Can Be Attributed to Damaged Balance Sheets? pp. 159-207

Ichiro Muto, Nao Sudo and Shunichi Yoneyama

Market Volatility, Monetary Policy and the Term Premium pp. 208-237

Abhishek Kumar, Sushanta Mallick, Madhusudan Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli

Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis pp. 238-267

Francesco Furlanetto, Kåre Hagelund, Frank Hansen and Ørjan Robstad