Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?

Peter C Liu

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1994, vol. 56, issue 4, 475-83

Abstract: The present study performs rationality tests on the survey of money announcements. As the money announcement follows a nonstationary process, traditional tests for rationality are not applicable. A different set of procedures that incorporated this time-series property would be used to test for the rational expectations hypothesis. Results show that the survey data fails the rational expectations hypothesis. Previous research has suggested various improvements for the forecasts. The author's results show that none of them make the forecasts consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Date: 1994
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