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Inflow Composition, Duration Dependence and their Impact on the Unemployment Outflow Rate

Hélène Turon

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2003, vol. 65, issue 1, 31-47

Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the components of the dynamics of the unemployment outflow rate with British data. We allow both the composition of the inflow and individual duration dependence to vary over the business cycle. We find the inflow composition to be strongly countercyclical. Individual exit rates are found to be substatntially more sensitive to the business cycle than previously thought and than the average exit rate fluctuations suggest. Cyclical variations in duration dependence are not significant. With our estimates, fluctuations in the average exit rate out of the first year of unemployment are mainly accounted for by variations of individual exit rates, variation of inflow composition, and variation in the inflow level combined with the duration dependence phenomenon.

Date: 2003
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00039

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Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Christopher Adam, Anindya Banerjee, Christopher Bowdler, David Hendry, Adriaan Kalwij, John Knight and Jonathan Temple

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