 Testing the Exogeneity of Argentine Devaluation and Default Risks in RetrospectHildegart Ahumada () and Maria Garegnani () Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005, vol. 67, issue 5, 647-672 Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between devaluation and default risks during Argentina's convertibility regime. Before default and devaluation occurred, a harder variant of the currency regime was under discussion. An often‐suggested argument among the supporters of dollarization was that the probability of default could have been reduced by removing fears of devaluation. For this to be true, default risk must be dependent on the devaluation risk. Long‐run relationships and ‘exogeneity’ are examined using a ‘cointegrating vector’ system approach. The results show that only devaluation risk can be modelled on default risk. No empirical evidence is found in favour of dollarization. Moreover, these conclusions are maintained when the information set is expanded to include the Latin American risk and Argentine macroeconomic variables. Date: 2005 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:5:p:647-672 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Christopher Adam, Anindya Banerjee, Christopher Bowdler, David Hendry, Adriaan Kalwij, John Knight and Jonathan Temple More articles in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics from Department of Economics, University of Oxford Contact information at EDIRC. |
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