Unit Root Testing under a Local Break in Trend using Partial Information on the Break Date
David Harvey,
Stephen Leybourne () and
Robert Taylor
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014, vol. 76, issue 1, 93-111
Abstract:
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We consider unit root testing allowing for a break in trend when partial information is available regarding the location of the break date. This takes the form of knowledge of a relatively narrow window of data within which the break takes place, should it occur at all. For such circumstances, we suggest employing a union of rejections strategy, which combines a unit root test that allows for a trend break somewhere within the window with a unit root test that makes no allowance for a trend break. Asymptotic and finite sample evidence shows that our suggested strategy works well, provided that, when a break does occur, the partial information is correct. An empirical application to UK interest rate data containing the 1973 ‘oil shock’ is also considered.
Date: 2014
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