Dataâ€ Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models
Markku Lanne and
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2018, vol. 80, issue 2, 236-258
We propose imposing dataâ€ driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under nonâ€ informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters () model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Outâ€ ofâ€ sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.
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