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On the role of the trend and cyclical components in electricity consumption and India's economic growth: a cointegration and cofeature approach

Wasim Ahmad, Md Zulquar Nain and Bandi Kamaiah

OPEC Energy Review, 2014, vol. 38, issue 1, 107-126

Abstract: In this paper, the relationship between electricity consumption (LEC) and economic growth (LGDP) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality within error correction framework in India over the period 1970–1971 to 2009–2010 are analysed. The results of these tests exhibit the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bilateral causality in case of India. Then, Hodrick–Prescott filter is used to decompose the data into trend and cyclical (fluctuation) components of electricity consumption and economic growth. The results of decomposed series revealed that both series are cointegrated with the strong evidence of bidirectional causality, implying that trend and cyclical components are strongly correlated with business cycles in India. From these findings, we conclude that the feedback hypothesis is applicable in case of India. Therefore, government should undertake necessary policy measures to augment the investment in power sector from existing level and more importantly the emphasis should also be given on the efficient use of electricity.

Date: 2014
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