Owner‐occupancy fraud and mortgage performance

Ronel Elul, Aaron Payne and Sebastian Tilson

Real Estate Economics, 2023, vol. 51, issue 5, 1137-1177

Abstract: We identify occupancy fraud—borrowers who misrepresent their occupancy status as owner‐occupants rather than investors—in residential mortgage originations. Unlike previous work, we show that fraud was prevalent in originations not just during the housing bubble but also persists through more recent times. We also demonstrate that fraud is broad‐based and appears in government‐sponsored enterprise and bank portfolio loans, not just in private securitization; these fraudulent borrowers make up one third of the effective investor population. Occupancy frauds obtain credit at lower interest rates, suggesting a motivation for undertaking fraud. These fraudulent borrowers perform substantially worse than similar declared investors, defaulting at a 75% higher rate. We also provide evidence consistent with fraudulent borrowers’ defaults being more “strategic,” suggesting that this population poses a risk in the face of declining house prices.

Date: 2023
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12455

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