A Vacancy Transfer Model of the Structure of the Local Housing Market

Gary Sands

Real Estate Economics, 1977, vol. 5, issue 1, 128-138

Abstract: Household mobility data derived from vacancy chain or turnover studies may be used to develop a Markov model of the local housing market. Such a model based on empirical data from the Detroit metropolitan area indicates a strong tendency for households to substantially increase their housing expenditures when they move. This finding is consistent with the filtering model of local housing market dynamics. However, these data do not support the hypothesis that more expensive new housing will produce the greatest number of indirect housing opportunities. New units at every cost level generated about the same total of turnover vacancies. The model also indicates that all types of new construction ultimately have their greatest impact on lower cost housing in established communities.

Date: 1977
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