The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee () and
Artatrana Ratha ()
Review of International Economics, 2007, vol. 15, issue 2, 430-439
A few studies in dynamic general-equilibrium setting have argued that the trade balance is negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements, hence the S-curve phenomenon. Using aggregate trade data and the terms of trade has not provided strong empirical counterpart. However, in this paper, when we disaggregate the trade data between the US and her trading partners we find stronger results in support of the S-curve. Copyright © 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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