The S‐curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade*

Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee and Artatrana Ratha ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

Review of International Economics, 2007, vol. 15, issue 2, 430-439

Abstract: A few studies in dynamic general‐equilibrium setting have argued that the trade balance is negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements, hence the S‐curve phenomenon. Using aggregate trade data and the terms of trade has not provided strong empirical counterpart. However, in this paper, when we disaggregate the trade data between the US and her trading partners we find stronger results in support of the S‐curve.

Date: 2007
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