Would NAFTA have been Approved by the House of Representatives under President Bush? Presidents, Parties, and Trade Policy

Christopher Sean Patrick Magee

Review of International Economics, 2010, vol. 18, issue 2, 382-395

Abstract: This paper examines five trade policy votes in the United States House of Representatives, one during each of the last five presidential terms. The paper investigates the determinants of representative voting and shows that Congress members are more likely to support trade liberalization if the President is a member of their own party. The estimation allows a prediction to be made of the likely House trade votes under alternative presidential election outcomes. The model predicts that the probability of NAFTA being approved would have been greatly reduced by a victory for President Bush (41) in the 1992 election. Neither the trade promotion authority granted to President Bush (43) in 2001 nor the CAFTA signed in 2005 would likely have been approved under Democratic Presidents.

Date: 2010
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