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How Useful Is an EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate as an Intermediate Target for Europe?

Tamim Bayoumi and Peter Kenen

Review of International Economics, 1993, vol. 1, issue 3, 209-20

Abstract: This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and of long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987 the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual nominal aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Date: 1993
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