Capital flows to developing countries: Implications for monetary policy across the globe

Andre Harrison and Robert R. Reed

Review of International Economics, 2024, vol. 32, issue 3, 839-906

Abstract: The public sectors in many developing countries receive capital inflows from advanced countries. Notably, we show that higher levels of foreign borrowing play an important role in promoting economic activity in developing countries by relieving crowding out problems from local sovereign debt. Moreover, in comparison to previous contributions, we also show how participation affects economic activity in advanced countries. Using a micro‐founded two‐country model of money and banking, we show that there are crowding‐out effects in high income economies when the advanced country funds official foreign debt. Moreover, we find that there are significant implications for the effects of monetary policy when banks in the developed world hold more official foreign debt. In addition, the typical destructive effects of money growth in developing countries are weaker in the presence of higher levels of international borrowing. By comparison, the effects of monetary stimulus in the advanced country become more pronounced as banks hold more foreign bonds. Our analysis concludes by looking at optimal debt policy. Interestingly, the results suggest that developing countries should limit their reliance on foreign capital inflows.

Date: 2024
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