Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles

Daniel Thornton

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2019, vol. 66, issue 1, 5-27

Abstract: There are two unresolved puzzles in the foreign exchange literature. The unbiasedness puzzle – the finding of a marked difference in the conclusion about the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis depending on whether the hypothesis is tested using the forward rate equation or forward premium equation, and the forward premium puzzle – the fact that more often than not the forward premium incorrectly predicts the direction of the subsequent change in the spot rate. This paper resolves both puzzles.

Date: 2019
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https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12173

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Working Paper: Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles (2007)
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