Details about Daniel Thornton

This author is deceased (2024-05-06).

Access statistics for papers by Daniel Thornton.

Last updated 2024-05-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pth2

---

Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2014

1. How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?
   Working Papers CASMEF, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli View citations (8)
   Also in Working Papers, Utrecht School of Economics (2012) View citations (66)
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2012) View citations (21)
   See also Journal Article How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2015) View citations (12) (2015)

2013

2. An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
3. The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (20)
   See also Journal Article The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2013) View citations (20) (2013)

2012

4. Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
5. Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
6. Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t), Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (2014) View citations (26) (2014)
7. The Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)

2010

8. Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
9. Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
   See also Journal Article Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2018) View citations (8) (2018)
10. The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us
    Working Papers, American University, Department of Economics View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2010) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (2012) View citations (18) (2012)
11. The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2011) View citations (10) (2011)

2009

12. How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13. Resolving the unbiasedness puzzle in the foreign exchange market
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14. Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
15. The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (2014) View citations (25) (2014)

2008

16. Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (13)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (5)
17. The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (5)
18. The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)

2007

19. Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
20. The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (13)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value, Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (66) (2008)

2006

21. The daily liquidity effect
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (8)

2005

22. A new federal funds rate target series: September 27, 1982, - December 31, 1993
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)
23. Open market operations and the federal funds rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Open market operations and the federal funds rate, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2007) View citations (6) (2007)
24. The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (12)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2005) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press (2007) View citations (75) (2007)
25. When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (19)

2004

26. A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News
    LEM Papers Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations (3)
27. Federal Funds Rate Prediction
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations (5)
    Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003, Royal Economic Society (2003)
    See also Journal Article Federal Funds Rate Prediction, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (22) (2005)
28. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2006) View citations (25) (2006)
29. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2005) View citations (25) (2005)

2003

30. A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2004) View citations (15) (2004)
31. Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2004) View citations (2) (2004)
32. Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?, Manchester School, University of Manchester (2003) View citations (23) (2003)
33. Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan, Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (2004) View citations (15) (2004)
34. The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004) View citations (8) (2004)

2002

35. The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2002) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2003) View citations (85) (2003)
36. What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from a Spectral Perspective*, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2007) View citations (1) (2007)

2000

37. The expectations theory and the founding of the fed: another look at the evidence
    Research Memorandum, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) View citations (1)
38. The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2000) View citations (3)

1998

39. Lifting the veil of secrecy from monetary policy: evidence from the Fed's early discount rate policy
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2000) View citations (11) (2000)
40. The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect, Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier (2001) View citations (27) (2001)

1997

41. Do bank loan rates exhibit a countercyclical mark-up?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)

1996

42. Discount rate policies of five Federal Reserve Chairmen
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
43. Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
44. The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (8)

1994

45. Asymmetry in the prime rate and firms' preference for internal finance
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)

1992

46. The market's reaction to discount changes: what's behind the announcement effect?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
47. Why do T-bill rates react to discount rate changes?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (1994) View citations (10) (1994)

1988

48. Should consumer expenditures be the scale variable in empirical money demand equations?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
49. Why do market interest rates respond to money announcements?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1987

50. Unanticipated money and the anticipated liquidity effect: some further evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1985

51. Weighted monetary aggregates as intermediate targets
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)

1984

52. A note on the relative efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt and OLS estimators when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
53. Lag length selection and Granger causality
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
54. On the treatment of the weighted initial observation in the AR(1) regression model
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
55. Price expectations and the demand for money: a comment
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1986) View citations (3) (1986)
56. Tests of price sluggishness in the U.K
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
57. What do Almon's endpoint constraints constrain?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)

1983

58. Complete results for lag length selection
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
59. Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (1984) View citations (15) (1984)
60. Endpoint constraints and the St. Louis equation: a clarification
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
61. Lag-length selection criteria: empirical results from the St. Louis equation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (1)
62. The Andersen-Jordan equation, revisited
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article The Andersen-Jordan equation revisited, Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier (1985) View citations (1) (1985)
63. The appropriate autocorrelation transformation when the autocorrelation process has a finite past
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
64. The appropriate interest rate and scale variable in money demand: results from non-nested tests
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65. The real-balance effect with resource-using money: a capital-theoretic interpretation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1982

66. The budget constraint, endogenous money and the relative importance of fiscal policy under alternative financing schemes
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Journal Articles

2022

1. Further Evidence on Greenspan’s Conundrum
   Review, 2022, 104, (1), 70-77 View citations (1)

2021

2. The financial crisis: what caused it and when and why it ended
   Applied Economics, 2021, 53, (33), 3854-3870 View citations (1)

2019

3. Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles
   Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2019, 66, (1), 5-27 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles, Working Papers (2007) View citations (5) (2007)

2018

4. Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (2-3), 513-543 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields, Working Papers (2012) View citations (1) (2012)
5. Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 34, (4), 636-664 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis, Working Papers (2010) View citations (9) (2010)

2017

6. Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of event-study evidence
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017, 52, (C), 56-74 View citations (8)

2016

7. Guest editor's introduction: What monetary policy can and cannot do
   Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 47, (PA), 1-4

2015

8. How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?
   Review, 2015, 97, (4), 303-22 View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?, Working Papers CASMEF (2014) View citations (8) (2014)

2014

9. Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?
   Economic Synopses, 2014, (8)
10. Has QE been effective?
    Economic Synopses, 2014, (3) View citations (3)
11. Making sense of dissents: a history of FOMC dissents
    Review, 2014, 96, (3), 213-227 View citations (14)
12. Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, 40, (C), 202-213 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t, Working Papers (2012) View citations (2) (2012)
13. QE: is there a portfolio balance effect?
    Review, 2014, 96, (1), 55-72 View citations (11)
14. The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2014, 66, (1), 67-87 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks, Working Papers (2009) View citations (7) (2009)

2013

15. A perspective on possible Fed exit strategies
    Economic Synopses, 2013 View citations (3)
16. Does the economy need more spending now?
    Economic Synopses, 2013
17. Is nominal GDP targeting a rule policymakers could accept?
    Economic Synopses, 2013
18. Is the FOMC’s unemployment rate threshold a good idea?
    Economic Synopses, 2013
19. The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 37, (C), 345-348 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates, Working Papers (2013) View citations (20) (2013)
20. Why is output growth so slow?
    Economic Synopses, 2013

2012

21. A proposal for improving forward guidance
    Economic Synopses, 2012 View citations (2)
22. How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience
    Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 65-81 View citations (12)
23. How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?
    Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 21-39 View citations (9)
24. Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset Allocation Perspective
    The Review of Financial Studies, 2012, 25, (10), 3141-3168 View citations (93)
25. Quantitative easing and money growth: potential for higher inflation?
    Economic Synopses, 2012
26. The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2012, 64, (2), 197-216 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us, Working Papers (2010) View citations (3) (2010)
27. The U.S. deficit/debt problem: a longer-run perspective
    Review, 2012, (Nov), 441-456
28. The dual mandate: has the Fed changed its objective?
    Review, 2012, 94, (Mar), 117-134 View citations (5)
29. The efficacy of monetary policy: a tale from two decades
    Economic Synopses, 2012
30. The efficacy of the FOMC’s zero interest rate policy
    Economic Synopses, 2012
31. Verbal guidance and the efficacy of forward guidance
    Economic Synopses, 2012 View citations (1)

2011

32. Core versus headline inflation again
    Economic Synopses, 2011
33. Core versus headline inflation: an opportunity for greater transparency
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (3)
34. Inflation objective and policy credibility: a potential problem for the FOMC
    Economic Synopses, 2011
35. Is the FOMC’s policy inflating asset prices?
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (1)
36. Monetary policy at the zero bound
    Economic Synopses, 2011
37. Tax rates and revenue since the 1970s
    Economic Synopses, 2011
38. The FOMC’s interest rate policy: how long is the long run?
    Economic Synopses, 2011
39. The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility
    Review, 2011, 93, (Nov), 439-454 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility, Working Papers (2010) View citations (4) (2010)
40. The federal debt: too little revenue or too much spending
    Economic Synopses, 2011
41. The federal debt: what’s the source of the increase in spending?
    Economic Synopses, 2011
42. What does the change in the FOMC's statement of objectives mean?
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (5)
43. Why is employment growth so low?
    Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (1)

2010

44. Can the FOMC increase the funds rate without reducing reserves?
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (2)
45. Monetary policy and longer-term rates: an opportunity for greater transparency
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (1)
46. Monetizing the debt
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (5)
    Also in Review, 1984, 66, (Dec), 30-43 (1984) View citations (2)
47. The downside of quantitative easing
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (4)
48. The relationship between the daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects
    Review, 2010, 92, (Jan), 73-88 View citations (2)
49. Which comes first: inflation or the FOMC's funds rate target?
    Economic Synopses, 2010
50. Would QE2 have a significant effect on economic growth, employment, or inflation?
    Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (3)

2009

51. A perspective on the current recession: it's not the \\"worst case\\" yet
    Economic Synopses, 2009
52. Is there less agreement about inflation?
    Monetary Trends, 2009, (Jan)
53. Negating the inflation potential of the Fed's lending programs
    Economic Synopses, 2009 View citations (2)
54. Personal saving and economic growth
    Economic Synopses, 2009 View citations (3)
55. The Fed, liquidity, and credit allocation
    Review, 2009, 91, (Jan), 13-22 View citations (9)
56. The case for \\"inflation first\\" monetary policy
    Economic Synopses, 2009
57. The effect of the Fed’s purchase of long-term treasuries on the yield curve
    Economic Synopses, 2009 View citations (2)
58. What caused long-term rates to rise?
    Economic Synopses, 2009
59. What the Libor-OIS spread says
    Economic Synopses, 2009 View citations (22)
60. Would quantitative easing sooner have tempered the financial crisis and economic recession?
    Economic Synopses, 2009 View citations (2)

2008

61. A primer on the mortgage market and mortgage finance
    Review, 2008, 90, (Jan), 31-46 View citations (9)
62. Housing and the \"R\" word
    National Economic Trends, 2008, (Feb)
63. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2008, 89, (1), 158-174 View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (13) (2007)
64. Walter Bagehot, the discount window, and TAF
    Economic Synopses, 2008 View citations (2)

2007

65. Measure for measure: headline versus core inflation
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Sep) View citations (2)
66. Open market operations and the federal funds rate
    Review, 2007, 89, (Nov), 549-570 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Open market operations and the federal funds rate, Working Papers (2005) View citations (3) (2005)
67. Subprime side effects in the federal funds market
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (Oct)
68. The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields
    Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2007, 42, (1), 81-100 View citations (75)
    See also Working Paper The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields, CEPR Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (12) (2005)
69. The federal funds and long-term rates
    Monetary Trends, 2007, (May)
70. The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective
    Review, 2007, 89, (May), 183-194 View citations (4)
71. What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from a Spectral Perspective*
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 69, (2), 293-319 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective, Working Papers (2002) View citations (2) (2002)

2006

72. Greenspan's unconventional view of the long-run inflation/output trade-off
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Jan) View citations (2)
73. Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006, 38, (2), 511-542 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox, Working Papers (2004) View citations (11) (2004)
74. The Fed's inflation objective
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Jul) View citations (1)
75. \"Measured pace\" in the conduct of monetary policy
    Monetary Trends, 2006, (Mar) View citations (3)

2005

76. Federal Funds Rate Prediction
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (3), 449-71 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Federal Funds Rate Prediction, CEPR Discussion Papers (2004) View citations (6) (2004)
77. Social security, saving, and wealth accumulation
    National Economic Trends, 2005, (May)
78. Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2005, 29, (10), 2541-2556 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate, Working Papers (2004) View citations (7) (2004)
79. The monetary policy transmission mechanism?
    Monetary Trends, 2005, (Sep)

2004

80. A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2004, 28, (12), 3055-3068 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed, Working Papers (2003) View citations (1) (2003)
81. Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed
    Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 23, (5), 357-371 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed, Working Papers (2003) View citations (1) (2003)
82. Making monetary policy more transparent
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Jan)
83. Public officials and job creation
    National Economic Trends, 2004, (Sep)
84. Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan
    Monetary and Economic Studies, 2004, 22, (2), 45-69 View citations (15)
    Also in Review, 2004, 86, (Sep), 21-40 (2004) View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan, Working Papers (2003) View citations (2) (2003)
85. The FOMCs considerable period
    Monetary Trends, 2004, (Feb) View citations (1)
86. The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2004, 28, (3), 475-498 View citations (40)
87. The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
    Review, 2004, 86, (Jan), 49-60 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs, Working Papers (2003) (2003)

2003

88. Alternative policy weapons?
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Aug)
89. How effective is monetary policy?
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Jan) View citations (1)
90. Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
    Manchester School, 2003, 71, (5), 478-497 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?, Working Papers (2003) View citations (19) (2003)
91. Predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy
    Monetary Trends, 2003, (Jul)
92. The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2003, 27, (6), 1079-1110 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation, CEPR Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (8) (2002)

2002

93. Does a mild recession imply a weak recovery?
    National Economic Trends, 2002, (Apr)
94. Market anticipations of monetary policy actions
    Review, 2002, 84, (Jul), 65-94 View citations (93)
95. The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions
    Review, 2002, 84, (Sep), 37-50 View citations (9)
96. Withering dissents
    Monetary Trends, 2002, (Aug)

2001

97. Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency
    Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 59-82 View citations (28)
98. Interest rate targets abandoned
    Monetary Trends, 2001, (Jun)
99. The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2001, 25, (9), 1717-1739 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect, Working Papers (1998) View citations (11) (1998)
100. The codification of an FOMC procedure
     Monetary Trends, 2001, (Mar)
101. The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
     Review, 2001, 83, (Mar), 11-24 View citations (8)
102. The monetary/fiscal policy debate: a controlled experiment
     Monetary Trends, 2001, (Oct)
103. What accounts for the reduced frequency of Fed actions?
     Monetary Trends, 2001, (Apr)

2000

104. A history of the asymmetric policy directive
     Review, 2000, 82, (Sep), 1-16 View citations (22)
105. An experiment is underway
     Monetary Trends, 2000, (Feb)
106. Lifting the Veil of Secrecy from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (2), 155-67 View citations (11)
     See also Working Paper Lifting the veil of secrecy from monetary policy: evidence from the Fed's early discount rate policy, Working Papers (1998) (1998)
107. Money in a theory of exchange
     Review, 2000, 82, (Jan), 35-60 View citations (9)
108. The exceptional 1990s
     National Economic Trends, 2000, (Mar)
109. The golden dollar: the early evidence
     Monetary Trends, 2000, (Dec)

1999

110. Nominal interest rates: less than zero?
     Monetary Trends, 1999, (Jan) View citations (7)
111. The funds rate target and interest rates
     Monetary Trends, 1999, (Sep) View citations (2)

1998

112. Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes
     Review, 1998, (Nov), 25-36 View citations (35)
113. The importance of an asymmetric directive
     Monetary Trends, 1998, (Aug)

1997

114. Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions
     Review, 1997, (Nov), 45-53 View citations (32)

1996

115. Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?
     Review, 1996, (Nov), 77-88 View citations (14)
116. The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule
     Review, 1996, 78, (Mar), 23-38 View citations (16)

1995

117. Channels of monetary policy. Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference held October 20-21, 1994
     Review, 1995, (May)
     Also in Proceedings, 1995, (May) (1995) View citations (1)
118. Channels of monetary policy: conference introduction
     Review, 1995, (May), vii - xii
     Also in Proceedings, 1995, (May), vii - xii (1995)
119. Is there a case for \\"moderate\\" inflation?
     Review, 1995, (Jul), 27-38 View citations (4)
120. The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (3), 838-47 View citations (14)

1994

121. Financial innovation, deregulation and the \\"credit view\\" of monetary policy
     Review, 1994, (Jan), 31-49 View citations (11)
122. Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes?
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1994, 26, (4), 839-50 View citations (10)
     See also Working Paper Why do T-bill rates react to discount rate changes?, Working Papers (1992) View citations (2) (1992)

1992

123. An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates
     Review, 1992, (Nov), 35-52 View citations (30)
124. Targeting M2: the issue of monetary control
     Review, 1992, (Jul), 23-35 View citations (4)

1991

125. A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income
     Review, 1991, (Mar), 58-78 View citations (172)
     See also Chapter A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income, Palgrave Macmillan Books, 1994, 9-45 (1994) View citations (17) (1994)
126. Alternative measures of the monetary base: what are the differences and are they important?
     Review, 1991, (Nov), 19-35 View citations (5)
127. The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note
     Review, 1991, (Jul), 47-64 View citations (13)

1990

128. Comments on "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: Buffer stock and error correction approaches"
     Journal of Policy Modeling, 1990, 12, (2), 463-467
129. Do government deficits matter?
     Review, 1990, (Sep), 25-39 View citations (4)

1989

130. Tests of covered interest rate parity
     Review, 1989, (Jul), 55-66 View citations (5)
131. The effect of unanticipated money on the money and foreign exchange markets
     Journal of International Money and Finance, 1989, 8, (4), 573-587 View citations (13)
132. The link between M1 and the monetary base in the 198O's
     Review, 1989, (Sep), 35-52 View citations (3)

1988

133. On the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates
     Journal of International Money and Finance, 1988, 7, (3), 321-330 View citations (8)
134. The borrowed-reserves operating procedures: theory and evidence
     Review, 1988, (Jan), 30-54 View citations (35)
135. The effect of monetary policy on short-term interest rates
     Review, 1988, (May), 53-72 View citations (8)
136. The macroeconomic effects of deficit spending: a review
     Review, 1988, (Nov), 48-60 View citations (2)

1987

137. A note on the efficiency of the cochrane-orcutt estimator of the ar(1) regression model
     Journal of Econometrics, 1987, 36, (3), 369-376 View citations (2)
138. Solving the 1980s' velocity puzzle: a progress report
     Review, 1987, (Aug), 5-23 View citations (8)

1986

139. Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1986, 68, (3), 539-42 View citations (3)
     See also Working Paper Price expectations and the demand for money: a comment, Working Papers (1984) (1984)
140. The cost of checkable deposits in the United States
     Review, 1986, (Apr), 19-27 View citations (4)
141. The discount rate and market interest rates: theory and evidence
     Review, 1986, (Aug), 5-21 View citations (6)
142. The monetary-fiscal policy debate and the Andersen-Jordan equation
     Review, 1986, (Oct), 9-17 View citations (3)

1985

143. Are weighted monetary aggregates better than simple-sum M1?
     Review, 1985, 67, (Jun), 29-40 View citations (3)
144. Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1985, 17, (2), 164-78 View citations (149)
145. Monetary anticipations and the demand for money: Reply to MacKinnon and Milbourne
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 1985, 16, (2), 251-257 View citations (11)
146. Money demand dynamics: some new evidence
     Review, 1985, 67, (Mar), 14-23 View citations (5)
147. The Andersen-Jordan equation revisited
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1985, 7, (3), 419-432 View citations (1)
     See also Working Paper The Andersen-Jordan equation, revisited, Working Papers (1983) (1983)
148. The discount rate, interest rates and foreign exchange rates: an analysis with daily data
     Review, 1985, 67, (Feb), 22-30 View citations (8)

1984

149. An early look at the volatility of money and interest rates under CRR
     Review, 1984, 66, (Oct), 26-32
150. Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market
     Journal of International Money and Finance, 1984, 3, (3), 279-292 View citations (15)
     See also Working Paper Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market, Working Papers (1983) (1983)
151. How robust are the policy conclusions of the St. Louis equation?: some further evidence
     Review, 1984, 66, (Jun) View citations (6)
152. The government budget constraint with endogenous money
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1984, 6, (1), 57-67 View citations (2)

1983

153. Lagged and contemporaneous reserve accounting: an alternative view
     Review, 1983, 65, (Nov), 26-33
154. M1 or M2: which is the better monetary target?
     Review, 1983, 65, (Jun), 36-42 View citations (2)
155. Money, net wealth, and the real-balance effect
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1983, 5, (1), 105-117 View citations (2)
156. Polynomial distributed lags and the estimation of the St. Louis equation
     Review, 1983, 65, (Apr), 13-25 View citations (13)
157. The FOMC in 1982: de-emphasizing M1
     Review, 1983, 65, (Jun), 26-35 View citations (1)
158. Why does velocity matter?
     Review, 1983, 65, (Dec), 5-13 View citations (18)

1982

159. Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial Adjustment-Adaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, 64, (2), 325-29 View citations (3)
160. Simple analytics of the money supply process and monetary control
     Review, 1982, 64, (Oct), 22-39 View citations (8)
161. The FOMC in 1981: monetary control in a changing financial environment
     Review, 1982, 64, (Apr), 3-22
162. The discount rate and market interest rates: what's the connection?
     Review, 1982, 64, (Jun), 3-14 View citations (9)

1980

163. The empirical significance of the real balance effect
     Journal of Macroeconomics, 1980, 2, (3), 213-232

Chapters

1994

1. A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income
   Palgrave Macmillan View citations (17)
   See also Journal Article A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (1991) View citations (172) (1991)