The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us

Ellen Meade and Daniel Thornton
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: James E. Meade

No 2010-017, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe that it is equally important that macroeconomic models used to evaluate historical monetary policy reflect the framework that policymakers used to formulate that policy. To that end, we use the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts to examine the role that the Phillips curve framework played in Fed policymaking from 1982 through 2003. The FOMC?s transcripts allow us to trace the evolution in policymakers? discussion of the Phillips curve framework over time. Our analysis suggests that the Phillips curve was much less central to the formulation and implementation of US monetary policy than it is in models commonly used to evaluate that policy.

Keywords: Phillips curve; Monetary policy; Federal Open Market Committee (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-017.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us (2012)
Working Paper: The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-017

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Scott St. Louis ().