Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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2025-015: The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective

Anna Cole, Julian Kozlowski and Joseph Martorana

2025-014: Optimal Asset Market Operations

Yu-Ting Chiang and Piotr Żoch

2025-013: The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States

Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz

2025-012: Extended Supplement to “Insurance and Inequality with Persistent Private Information”

Alex Bloedel, R. Vijay Krishna and Oksana Leukhina

2025-011: On Expanding Public Funding of Selective Colleges

Lutz Hendricks, Tatyana Koreshkova and Oksana Leukhina

2025-010: The Phillips Curve's and Relative Phillips Curve's Slopes: Why So Different?

Bill Dupor

2025-009: Optimal Monetarist Arithmetic or How to Inflate If You Must

Rodolfo E. Manuelli

2025-008: Mark Carlson’s The Young Fed: A Review Essay

Jonathan Rose

2025-007: Was the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge Mainly Supply Driven?

Bill Dupor and Marie Hogan

2025-006: Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Florencia Airaudo, François de Soyres, Keith Richards and Ana Maria Santacreu

2025-005: Taxation, Compliance, and Clandestine Activities

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sugata Marjit, Santiago Pinto and Marcel Thum

2025-004: Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock

David Andolfatto and Fernando Martin

2025-003: Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment

David Fuller and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2025-002: A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening

Bill Dupor, Marie Hogan and Jingchao Li

2025-001: Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornados?

Jeffrey Cohen and Violeta A. Gutkowski

2024-038: Heterogeneity in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

2024-037: The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities

Charles Gascon and Joseph Martorana

2024-036: The Interactions of Social Norms about Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics

Antonio Cabrales, Manu García, David Ramos Muñoz and Angel Sánchez

2024-035: Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Devashish Mitra

2024-034: The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan

Christopher Neely

2024-033: The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings

Maximiliano Dvorkin and Brian Greaney

2024-032: Battles and Diseases in the U.S. Civil War

Guillaume Vandenbroucke

2024-031: Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation

Yu-Ting Chiang and Ezra Karger

2024-030: College Access and Intergenerational Mobility

Lutz Hendricks, Tatyana Koreshkova and Oksana Leukhina

2024-029: What the Transcripts Reveal About the FOMC’s Pre-Emptive Easing in July 1995

Kevin Kliesen

2024-028: Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade

Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu

2024-027: The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and David Deming

2024-026: The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

2024-025: Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages

Serdar Birinci, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

2024-024: Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

2024-023: Measuring Trends in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

2024-022: Economic Surveillance using Corporate Text

Tarek Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Aakash Kalyani, Markus Schwedeler, Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent

2024-021: Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data

Marie Hogan, Laura Jackson Young and Michael Owyang

2024-020: The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets

Ana Maria Santacreu and Ashley Stewart

2024-019: Scalable versus Productive Technologies

Mons Chan, Guangbin Hong, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

2024-018: Trade and Inequality in an Overlapping Generations Model with Capital Accumulation

Jun Nie, B Ravikumar and Michael Sposi

2024-017: Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom

Serdar Birinci, Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Kurt See

2024-016: An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing

Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Samuel Jordan-Wood and Julian Kozlowski

2024-015: Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Credit Recovery

Violeta A. Gutkowski

2024-014: The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model

Miguel Faria-e-Castro

2024-013: Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality

Elin Halvorsen, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

2024-012: Work from Home and Interstate Migration

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens and Hannah Rubinton

2024-011: A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

2024-10: After 40 Years, How Representative Are Labor Market Outcomes in the NLSY79?

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

2024-009: The Diffusion of New Technologies

Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, Joshua Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun

2024-007: Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Rocio Madera and Serdar Ozkan

2024-006: Sluggish news reactions: A combinatorial approach for synchronizing stock jumps

Nabil Bouamara, Kris Boudt, Sébastien Laurent and Christopher Neely

2024-005: The Adoption of Non-Rival Inputs and Firm Scope

Xian Jiang and Hannah Rubinton

2024-004: Trade Risk and Food Security

Tasso Adamopoulos and Fernando Leibovici

2024-003: The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness

Maggie Isaacson, Cassandra Marks, Lowell Ricketts and Hannah Rubinton