Working Papers

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94640: Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

94533: Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis

Amy Guisinger, Laura Jackson Young and Michael Owyang

94511: The Sine Aggregatio Approach to Applied Macro

Timothy Conley, Bill Dupor and Mahdi Ebsim

94263: Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection

B Ravikumar, Raymond Riezman and Yuzhe Zhang

94192: Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS

Alexander Bick and Adam Blandin

94179: Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the 1937-38 Recession? New Evidence on the Impact of Reserve Requirements on Bank Reserve Demand and Lending

Charles Calomiris, Joseph R. Mason and David Wheelock

94178: Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life

Carlos Garriga, Rodolfo Manuelli and Siddhartha Sanghi

94105: The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis

Iris Arbogast and Bill Dupor

93994: The Ramsey Steady-State Conundrum in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies

YiLi Chien and Yi Wen

93893: Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

93884: Politically influenced counterterrorism policy and welfare efficiency

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

93883: Structural Change in Labor Supply and Cross-Country Differences in Hours Worked

Alexander Bick, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, David Lagakos and Hitoshi Tsujiyama

93848: Hours and Wages

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

93807: Attention and a Paradox of Uncertainty

Yu-Ting Chiang

93642: On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth

Aaron Amburgey and Michael McCracken

93614: Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital

Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan and Jae Song

93609: Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage

Amy Guisinger, Michael McCracken and Michael Owyang

93530: Earnings Dynamics and Its Intergenerational Transmission: Evidence from Norway

Elin Halvorsen, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

93440: International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs

Maximiliano Dvorkin

93317: Paving the Road for Replications: Experimental Results from an Online Research Bibliography

Tom Coupé, W. Reed and Christian Zimmermann

93278: Evergreening

Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul and Juan Sanchez

93277: The Impact of Juvenile Conviction on Human Capital and Labor Market Outcomes

Limor Golan, Rong Hai and Hayley Wabiszewski

93276: Dynamic Gains from Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions

Ana Maria Santacreu

93275: Financial Frictions and International Trade

David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici and Michal Szkup

93274: Effects of Defensive and Proactive Measures on Competition Between Terrorist Groups

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

92106: What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?

Ana Maria Santacreu, Michael Sposi and Jing Zhang

91632: The Local-Spillover Decomposition of an Aggregate Causal Effect

Timothy Conley, Bill Dupor, Mahdi Ebsim, Jingchao Li and Peter McCrory

90912: The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity

Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

90705: The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries

Serdar Birinci, Fernando Leibovici and Kurt See

90561: The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market

Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio and David Wiczer

90070: What Do Survey Data Tell Us about US Businesses?

Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan and Kurt See

89824: Are Unconditional Lump-sum Transfers a Good Idea?

Yunmin Chen, YiLi Chien, Yi Wen and C. C. Yang

89756: The Poverty of Macroeconomics --- What the Chemical Revolution Tells Us about Neoclassical Production Function

Yi Wen

89372: Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements

Amy Guisinger, Michael Owyang and Daniel Soques

89221: Supply and demand shifts of shorts before Fed announcements during QE1–QE3

Thomas McInish, Christopher Neely and Jade Planchon

89216: Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Existence, Size, and Power

Michael McCracken

88995: The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Lee Ohanian, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, Diana Van Patten and Mark Wright

88994: More Stories of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Evan Karson and Christopher Neely

88993: Wage Setting Under Targeted Search

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

88992: Fiscal Dominance

Fernando Martin

88991: Time-Inconsistent Optimal Quantity of Debt

YiLi Chien and Yi Wen

88990: No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, and Financial Development

David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici and Michal Szkup

88989: Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics

John Hejkal, B Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

88971: Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search

Victoria Gregory

88871: Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises

Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Julian Kozlowski

88818: Enduring Relationships in an Economy with Capital and Private Information

Aubhik Khan, Latchezar Popov and B Ravikumar

88813: Should Capital Be Taxed?

Yunmin Chen, YiLi Chien, Yi Wen and C.C. Yang

88727: Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies

Charles Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra and Russell Wong

88720: FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications

Kathryn Bokun, Laura E. Jackson, Kevin Kliesen and Michael Owyang

88709: Collaboration in Bipartite Networks, with an Application to Coauthorship Networks

Chih-Sheng Hsieh, Michael König, Xiaodong Liu and Christian Zimmermann