Working Papers

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2003-024: Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting

Michael Dueker, Martin Sola and Fabio Spagnolo

2003-023: A spectral analysis of the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle

Michael Pakko

2003-022: Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox

Daniel Thornton

2003-021: The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields

Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Giorgio Valente

2003-020: International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation

Amit Kara and Edward Nelson

2003-019: Money and the transmission mechanism in the optimizing IS-LM specification

Edward Nelson

2003-018: Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?

Christopher Neely

2003-017: A leisurely reading of the life-cycle consumption data

James Bullard and James Feigenbaum

2003-016: On the information content of asymmetric FOMC policy statements: evidence from a Taylor-rule perspective

Michael Pakko

2003-015: Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching

Chang-Jin Kim, Jeremy Piger and Richard Startz

2003-014: Gold, fiat money and price stability

Michael Bordo, Robert Dittmar and William Gavin

2003-013: Did the Great Inflation occur despite policymaker commitment to a Taylor rule?

James Bullard and Stefano Eusepi

2003-012: On the risk-return relation in international stock markets

Hui Guo

2003-011: Business cycle phases in U.S. states

Michael Owyang, Jeremy Piger and Howard Wall

2003-010: The use of long-run restrictions for the identification of technology shocks

Neville Francis, Michael Owyang and Athena T. Theodorou

2003-009: Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications

Abbigail J. Chiodo, Massimo Guidolin, Michael Owyang and Makoto Shimoji

2003-008: Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy

Michael Owyang and Howard Wall

2003-007: On the real-time forecasting ability of the consumption-wealth ratio

Hui Guo

2003-006: Some tables of historical U.S. currency and monetary aggregates data

Richard Anderson

2003-005: Political allocation of U.S. agriculture disaster payments in the 1990s

Thomas Garrett, Thomas Marsh and Maria Marshall

2003-004: Pass-through estimates and the choice of an exchange rate index

Cletus Coughlin and Patricia Pollard

2003-003: Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?

Thomas Garrett, Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Michael Owyang

2003-002: FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?

William Gavin

2003-001: Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle

Neville Francis and Michael Owyang

2002-032: Entrepreneurship and the deregulation of banking: how strong is the evidence?

Howard Wall

2002-031: Patent licensing revisited: heterogeneous firms and product differentiation

Ruben Hernandez-Murillo and Gerard Llobet

2002-030: Substitution elasticities and investment dynamics in two country business cycle models

Michael Pakko

2002-029: What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective

Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton and Yi Wen

2002-028: Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?

Daniel Thornton

2002-027: Mergers and acquisitions in Germany

Frank A. Schmid and Mark Wahrenburg

2002-026: Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom

William Emmons and Frank A. Schmid

2002-025: Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index

Michael Dueker and Charles Nelson

2002-024: Aggregated vs. disaggregated data in regression analysis: implications for inference

Thomas Garrett

2002-023: Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

Andrew Levin and Jeremy Piger

2002-022: Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure

Leora Friedberg and Michael Owyang

2002-021: Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence

Abbigail J. Chiodo and Michael Owyang

2002-020: New evidence on the Fed's productivity in providing payments services

R. Gilbert, David Wheelock and Paul Wilson

2002-019: Entrepreneurship and the policy environment

Yannis Georgellis and Howard Wall

2002-018: Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR

Michael Owyang

2002-017: Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? and does it matter?

Christopher Neely

2002-016: Directly measuring early exercise premiums using American and European S&P 500 index options

Michael Dueker and Thomas W. Miller

2002-015: Tax competition and tax harmonization with evasion

Nestor Gandelman and Ruben Hernandez-Murillo

2002-014: Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions

Chang-Jin Kim, James Morley and Jeremy Piger

2002-013: Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns

Hui Guo

2002-012: The political economy of FEMA disaster payments

Thomas Garrett and Russell Sobel

2002-011: State lottery revenue: the importance of game characteristics

Thomas Garrett and Russell Sobel

2002-010: Inefficient education spending in public school districts: a case for consolidation

Marvin E. Dodson and Thomas Garrett

2002-009: Aviation security and terrorism: a review of the economic issues

Jeffrey Cohen, Cletus Coughlin and Sarosh Khan

2002-008: On the out-of-sample predictability of stock market returns

Hui Guo

2002-007: How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?

Christopher Neely and Lucio Sarno