Working Papers

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99980: Optimal Monetarist Arithmetic or How to Inflate If You Must

Rodolfo E. Manuelli

99925: Mark Carlson’s The Young Fed: A Review Essay

Jonathan Rose

99767: Was the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge Mainly Supply Driven?

Bill Dupor and Marie Hogan

99766: Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy

Florencia Airaudo, François de Soyres, Keith Richards and Ana Maria Santacreu

99706: Taxation, Compliance, and Clandestine Activities

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Sugata Marjit, Santiago Pinto and Marcel Thum

99576: Monetary Policy and the Great COVID-19 Price Level Shock

David Andolfatto and Fernando Martin

99496: Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment

David Fuller and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

99477: A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening

Bill Dupor, Marie Hogan and Jingchao Li

99461: Natural Disasters and Real Asset Prices: What Can We Learn From Tornados?

Jeffrey Cohen and Violeta A. Gutkowski

99270: Heterogeneity in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

99162: The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities

Charles Gascon and Joseph Martorana

99043: The Interactions of Social Norms about Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics

Antonio Cabrales, Manu García, David Ramos Muñoz and Angel Sánchez

98968: Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Devashish Mitra

98963: The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan

Christopher Neely

98888: The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings

Maximiliano Dvorkin and Brian Greaney

98887: Battles and Diseases in the U.S. Civil War

Guillaume Vandenbroucke

98882: Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation

Yu-Ting Chiang and Ezra Karger

98881: College Access and Intergenerational Mobility

Lutz Hendricks, Tatyana Koreshkova and Oksana Leukhina

98865: What the Transcripts Reveal About the FOMC’s Pre-Emptive Easing in July 1995

Kevin Kliesen

98864: Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade

Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu

98805: The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and David Deming

98801: The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

98793: Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages

Serdar Birinci, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

98792: Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

98776: Measuring Trends in Work From Home: Evidence from Six U.S. Datasets

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan and Tristan Caplan

98770: The Diffusion of New Technologies

Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, Joshua Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun

98767: Text as Data in Economic Analysis

Tarek Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Aakash Kalyani, Markus Schwedeler, Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent

98762: Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data

Marie Hogan, Laura Jackson Young and Michael Owyang

98710: The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets

Ana Maria Santacreu and Ashley Stewart

98702: Scalable versus Productive Technologies

Mons Chan, Guangbin Hong, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

98700: Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Rocio Madera and Serdar Ozkan

98581: Trade and Inequality in an Overlapping Generations Model with Capital Accumulation

Jun Nie, B Ravikumar and Michael Sposi

98578: Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom

Serdar Birinci, Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Kurt See

98542: An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing

Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Samuel Jordan-Wood and Julian Kozlowski

98514: Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Credit Recovery

Violeta A. Gutkowski

98405: The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model

Miguel Faria-e-Castro

98371: Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality

Elin Halvorsen, Joachim Hubmer, Serdar Ozkan and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

98267: Work from Home and Interstate Migration

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens and Hannah Rubinton

98197: A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

98081: After 40 Years, How Representative Are Labor Market Outcomes in the NLSY79?

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Richard Rogerson

97969: Sluggish news reactions: A combinatorial approach for synchronizing stock jumps

Nabil Bouamara, Kris Boudt, Sébastien Laurent and Christopher Neely

97962: The Adoption of Non-Rival Inputs and Firm Scope

Xian Jiang and Hannah Rubinton

97907: Trade Risk and Food Security

Tasso Adamopoulos and Fernando Leibovici

97626: The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness

Maggie Isaacson, Cassandra Marks, Lowell Ricketts and Hannah Rubinton

97547: Structural Change and the Rise in Markups

Ricardo Marto

97539: Heterogeneous Responses to Job Mobility Shocks in a HANK Model with a Frictional Labor Market

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

97470: Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development

Jesse LaBelle, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Ana Maria Santacreu and Yoto Yotov

97435: Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 Fed Tightening Episode

Kevin Kliesen

97409: Bootstrapping out-of-sample predictability tests with real-time data

Silvia Goncalves, Michael McCracken and Yongxu Yao

97227: What about Japan?

YiLi Chien, Harold Cole and Hanno Lustig