On the real-time forecasting ability of the consumption-wealth ratio

Hui Guo ()

No 2003-007, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a) show that the consumption-wealth ratio-the error term from the cointegration relation among consumption, net worth, and labor income-forecasts stock market returns out of sample. In this paper, we reexamine their evidence using real-time data. Consistent with the early authors, we find that consumption and labor income data are subject to substantial revisions, which reflect (1) incorporating new information or methodologies and (2) reducing noise. Consequently, in contrast with the results obtained from the current vintage, the out-of-sample forecasting power of the consumption-wealth ratio is found to be negligible in real time. (Earlier version titled: Does the consumption-wealth ratio forecast stock market returns in real time?

Keywords: Stock market; Asset pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2003-007/ (application/pdf)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-007.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-007

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Scott St. Louis ().