Working Papers

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88708: The Role of Establishment Size in the City-Size Earnings Premium

Charly Porcher, Hannah Rubinton and Clara Santamaria

88704: Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data

Ana Galvão and Michael Owyang

88664: Convergence to Rational Expectations in Learning Models: A Note of Caution

YiLi Chien, Inkoo Cho and B Ravikumar

88645: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis

Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martínez García and Christopher Neely

88548: Spousal Labor Supply Response to Job Displacement and Implications for Optimal Transfers

Serdar Birinci

88542: Home Production and Leisure During the COVID-19 Recession

Oksana Leukhina and Zhixiu Yu

88526: Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan and Kurt See

88525: Job Applications and Labor Market Flows

Serdar Birinci, Kurt See and Shu Lin Wee

88437: Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation

Kevin Kliesen and David Wheelock

88436: Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation

Benjamin Pugsley and Hannah Rubinton

88435: The Geography of Business Dynamism and Skill-Biased Technical Change

Hannah Rubinton

88394: Hot Money for a Cold Economy

David Andolfatto

88386: On the Essentiality of Credit and Banking at the Friedman Rule

Paola Boel and Christopher Waller

88355: Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default

Emilio Espino, Julian Kozlowski, Fernando Martin and Juan Sanchez

88239: A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954

Sriya Anbil, Mark Carlson, Christopher Hanes and David Wheelock

88217: Counterterrorism Policy: Spillovers, Regime Stability, and Corner Solutions

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Todd Sandler

88187: A Local-Spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks

Timothy Conley, Bill Dupor, Mahdi Ebsim, Jingchao Li and Peter McCrory

88154: The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic

Guillaume Vandenbroucke

88125: Shadow Bank Runs

David Andolfatto and Ed Nosal

87978: Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19

Pedro Brinca, Joao Duarte and Miguel Faria-e-Castro

87897: Shortages of Critical Goods in a Global Economy: Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy

Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

87869: Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19

Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran

87863: Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk

David Andolfatto

87831: Are Government Bonds Net Wealth or a Liability? ---Optimal Debt and Taxes in an OLG Model with Uninsurable Income Risk

YiLi Chien, Yi Wen and HsinJung Wu

87616: Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic

Miguel Faria-e-Castro

87608: FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research

Michael McCracken and Serena Ng

87441: The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse

Bill Dupor, Rong Li, M. Saif Mehkari and Yi-Chan Tsai

87418: A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s

Kevin Kliesen

87403: Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity

Serdar Birinci and Kurt See

87400: Optimal Fiscal Policy under Capital Overaccumulation

YiLi Chien and Yi Wen

86727: The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects

Jeffrey Cohen, Cletus Coughlin, Jonas C. Crews and Stephen Ross

86673: Investment and Bilateral Insurance

Emilio Espino, Julian Kozlowski and Juan Sanchez

86669: The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty

YiLi Chien and Yi Wen

86649: Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time

Scott Brave, Charles Gascon, William Kluender and Thomas Walstrum