Technology Adoption, Mortality, and Population Dynamics

John Hejkal (), B Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

No 2020-039, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics, emphasizing individuals' decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Expanded use of this technology reduces the cost of adoption and confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories of fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.

Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; population dynamics; technology diffusion; convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E13 I12 I15 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2020-10, Revised 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dge and nep-mac
Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae079
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in The Economic Journal

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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.039

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