The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs

Lucio Sarno and Daniel Thornton

Review, 2004, vol. 86, issue Jan, 49-60

Abstract: Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that, if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. The authors argue that this analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with weaker forms of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.

Keywords: Econometric models; Macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/04/01/sarno.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2004:i:jan:p:49-60:n:v.86no.1

Access Statistics for this article

Review is currently edited by Juan M. Sanchez

More articles in Review from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Scott St. Louis ().