Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered
Madeleine Andreff and
Pascal Favard ()
Social Science Quarterly, 2020, vol. 101, issue 2, 697-711
Objective This article aims at explaining national medal totals at the 1992–2016 Summer Olympic Games (n = 1,289 observations) and forecasting them in 2016 (based on 1992–2012 data) and 2020 with a set of variables similar to previous studies, as well as a regional (subcontinents) variable not tested previously in the literature in English. Method Econometric testing not only resorts to a Tobit model as usual but also to a Hurdle model. Results Most variables have a significant impact on national team medal totals; it appears to be negative for most regions other than North America except Western Europe and Oceania (not significant). Then, two models (Tobit and Hurdle) are implemented to forecast national medal totals at the 2016 and 2020 Summer Olympics. Conclusion Both models are complementary for the 2016 forecast. The 2020 forecast is consistent with Olympic Medals Predictions, although some striking differences are found.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:socsci:v:101:y:2020:i:2:p:697-711
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0038-4941
Access Statistics for this article
Social Science Quarterly is currently edited by Robert L. Lineberry
More articles in Social Science Quarterly from Southwestern Social Science Association
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().