Defying the Rally During COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Enrijeta Shino and Michael Binder

Social Science Quarterly, 2020, vol. 101, issue 5, 1979-1994

Abstract: Objective Do people set aside their partisan differences and rally around elected officials during a pandemic? President Trump's delegation of responsibility to the states during the COVID‐19 pandemic placed governors on the frontlines of the battle; some have shined and garnered positive national attention, others have wilted under the pressure of the national spotlight. Methods We use regression discontinuity design and exploit a discontinuity in the state's political events to assess the support of a governor's response to the pandemic. Results Using survey data from Florida's registered voters, we find that Governor DeSantis's approval dropped by 7 percentage points following his “Safer at Home” order press conference on April 1. Conclusion Our results suggest that under certain circumstances partisanship can blunt a “rally around the flag” effect. This finding provides context to understanding when and under which circumstances elected officials can expect increases (or decreases) in public support.

Date: 2020
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