Professors and Practitioners: Assessing the Impact of COVID‐19 in the State of Oklahoma with and Without Residents of Long‐Term Care Facilities

Jared Taylor, Melinda McCann, Goutam Chakraborty, Glen Krutz, Justin Dvorak and Aaron Wendelboe

Social Science Quarterly, 2021, vol. 102, issue 1, 17-28

Abstract: Objectives Our analysis, which began as a request from the Oklahoma Governor for useable analysis for state decision making, seeks to predict statewide COVID‐19 spread through a variety of lenses, including with and without long‐term care facilities (LTCFs), accounting for rural/urban differences, and considering the impact of state government regulations of the citizenry on disease spread. Methods We utilize a deterministic susceptible exposed infectious resistant (SEIR) model designed to fit observed fatalities, hospitalizations, and ICU beds for the state of Oklahoma with a particular focus on the role of the rural/urban nature of the state and the impact that COVID‐19 cases in LTCFs played in the outbreak. Results The model provides a reasonable fit for the observed data on new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. Moreover, removing LTCF cases from the analysis sharpens the analysis of the population in general, showing a more gradual increase in cases at the start of the pandemic and a steeper increase when the second surge occurred. Conclusions We anticipate that this procedure could be helpful to policymakers in other states or municipalities now and in the future.

Date: 2021
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