Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

Harold Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Karl Ho

Social Science Quarterly, 2021, vol. 102, issue 5, 2194-2209

Abstract: Objective This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid‐19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election. Methods The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election. Results Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome. Conclusion Before the onset of Covid‐19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.

Date: 2021
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