A new indicator of coalition size: Tests against standard regime‐type indicators

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith

Social Science Quarterly, 2022, vol. 103, issue 2, 365-379

Abstract: Objective We develop a new measure for selectorate's theory central concept, winning coalition size, using indicators developed by the V‐Dem project. Methods To demonstrate the measure's efficacy, we examine its ability to account for government provision of public and private goods, a central prediction in selection theory. The winning coalition measure is compared to eight widely used indicators of regime type in analyses of 30 measures of government policy provision. Results Based on Vuong tests and Akaike information criteria, the new measure generally outperforms the alternative regime measures whether the assessment is across all regimes, within nondemocratic regimes or within democratic settings. Conclusion The new indicator provides an improved tool for testing the nuances of selectorate theory.

Date: 2022
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