 Private prison stocks and the 2020 presidential electionStephen V. Marks and Seth C. Pope Social Science Quarterly, 2022, vol. 103, issue 2, 409-424 Abstract: Objective Can we gain insight into the outcomes of presidential elections, and their determinants, other than through opinion polling or prediction markets? This matters because of recent misses in polling and the contestation of the 2020 election beyond Election Day. Methods Using alternative generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, we conduct an event study of two U.S. private prison companies, whose valuations have depended on their being awarded federal contracts, during the 2020 campaign and afterward. Results Comparison around Election Day of changes in prison company stock prices based on these models and in the predicted probability of President Trump being reelected based on a popular prediction market allows inference of the effects of the January 6 incident at the U.S. Capitol and the Biden inauguration on the subjective probability that Trump would retain power. Conclusion The probability of Trump retaining power that was reflected in asset markets remained positive up to the Biden inauguration—a real‐time indication of the fragility of American democracy. Date: 2022 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:socsci:v:103:y:2022:i:2:p:409-424 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Social Science Quarterly is currently edited by Robert L. Lineberry More articles in Social Science Quarterly from Southwestern Social Science Association |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.