Voting on gun rights: Mapping the electoral scope of the pro‐gun constituency in America

Raymond Tatalovich and Donald P. Haider‐Markel

Social Science Quarterly, 2022, vol. 103, issue 6, 1359-1370

Abstract: Objective Although it is clear that gun issues often shape the electoral preferences of some voters and the electoral success of some candidates, there has been little effort to examine the factors that shape electoral outcomes in direct democracy contests involving gun rights. Methods We use weighted ordinary least squares analysis of county‐level data to predict where support for gun rights will be higher. The data include demographic and political variables and are based on a universe of 515 counties drawn from eight states that held direct democracy elections on virtually identical measures solidifying the “right to bear arms.” Results Although all of these measures passed, our analysis suggests that support for these measures is higher in counties that had more support for Republican presidential candidates, an older population, and fewer non‐white residents. Support was lower in counties with higher education, more women, and greater population density. Conclusion We conclude that the partisan and urban/rural divide on gun rights drives electoral results in these direct democracy contests.

Date: 2022
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