The decline of the non‐Hispanic white population in the United States of America

Richard R. Verdugo and David A. Swanson

Social Science Quarterly, 2024, vol. 105, issue 3, 528-543

Abstract: Objectives The question of a declining non‐Hispanic white (NHW) population has sparked debate in the United States. In examining this question, three bodies of research have emerged. One group reports that the decline is real, a second argues that it is an illusion, and the third provides evidence that the decline is concentrated within socio‐economic segments of the NHW population. We use the third groups’ insight as the starting point for our research objective. Methods In conjunction with data from Census Bureau sources, we use a series of Regression Models in this inquiry. Results Our results show that the decline of the NHW population is real and related to factors embedded in the institutional anomie theory (IAT) framework. Conclusions We conclude that the IAT framework is a suitable approach for examining the question of NHW population decline. However, we suggest that future research consider refining our approach by: (1) using sub‐state areas as the units of analyses; (2) examining changes in the NHW population relative to lagged changes in the IAT framework at both the state and sub‐state levels; (3) placing our framework into an “algorithmic modeling approach” that employs machine learning; and (4) developing anomie predictors.

Date: 2024
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