When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election

Álvaro J. Corral and David L. Leal

Social Science Quarterly, 2024, vol. 105, issue 4, 1239-1252

Abstract: Objective Scholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties. Methods We conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range. Results Intra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020. Conclusion While the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.

Date: 2024
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