Populist votes, orientations, and the COVID‐19 pandemic in Italy: A latent growth study

Silvia Russo, Michele Roccato, Nicoletta Cavazza and Lorenzo Cena

Social Science Quarterly, 2024, vol. 105, issue 7, 2174-2189

Abstract: Objective We aimed to predict the trend of populist orientations and votes in Italy before and during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Method Using the Consequences of COVID‐19 (COCO) data set (quota sample of the Italian adult population), we conducted a 3.5‐year, seven‐wave longitudinal study, with one wave before the pandemic (June 2019) and six waves during the pandemic (April and October 2020, April and October 2021, and April and October 2022). Results Two latent growth analyses have shown that in the period we considered the degree of populism of the party chosen for the vote decreased linearly; this change was positively associated with the anxiety of the participants. Conversely, populist orientations remained stable. Conclusion The COVID‐19 pandemic plausibly contributed to a superficial and temporary halt to the long populist wave that hit Italy in the last decades, as demonstrated by the decrease in populist vote choices concomitant with a persistent substrate of populist orientations.

Date: 2024
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