Who Believes in the “Great Replacement”? Political Attitudes and Democratic Alienation Among Supporters of Immigration‐Related Conspiracy Theories in Europe

Maik Herold

Social Science Quarterly, 2025, vol. 106, issue 2

Abstract: Objective This paper investigates how belief in the Great Replacement myth (GRM) is associated with individual political attitudes, ideological positions, and indicators of political alienation. Method It uses original survey data that were conducted in 10 European Union countries in 2022 (n = 20,449) employing robust linear regression modeling. Results The study provides evidence that growing support for the GRM is associated with declining satisfaction with democracy and political trust, as well as increasing populist sentiments, anti‐immigration attitudes and a greater acceptance of violence as a means of politics. However, it also reveals that, in socio‐cultural terms, a majority of Great Replacement supporters hold rather liberal than conservative positions on issues such as transnational integration, gender equality, and the rights of marginalized groups, with one in ten even taking a pro‐immigration stance. Conclusion The findings have important implications for those seeking to tackle immigration‐related conspiracy beliefs and address their actual or potential supporters. They show that those who believe in the GRM are much more politically diverse than expected and that their endorsement of this narrative cannot simply be understood as the product of an extreme political ideology.

Date: 2025
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