Historical Slavery Predicts Contemporary Violent Crime: Inequality and Political Attitudes as Mediators

Moamen Gouda and Anouk S. Rigterink

Social Science Quarterly, 2025, vol. 106, issue 5

Abstract: Objective This study examines the long‐term impact of historical slavery on contemporary violent crime in the United States, investigating the claim that slavery perpetuated violence. Methods We use county‐level data to estimate the relationship between the proportion of enslaved individuals in 1860 and violent crime rates in 2000. The analysis includes robustness checks using instrumental variable approaches and alternative treatments of missing data, and tests for potential biases in crime reporting. Results We find a statistically significant and positive relationship between historical slavery and modern violent crime. This relationship is not observed for other types of crime and remains robust across specifications. Further analysis reveals that slavery's legacy shapes economic inequality, as well as racial attitudes among both White and Black Americans. These mediate the relationship between historical slavery and modern violent crime: inequality and Black Americans’ political attitudes mediate the overall effect, while White Americans’ racial attitudes mediate the effect on interracial violence. Conclusion The findings highlight a persistent legacy of slavery on violent crime in the United States, operating through both inequality and racial attitudes. This underscores the deep and enduring societal impacts of historical institutions on contemporary outcomes.

Date: 2025
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