A Mass–Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking

Donald Granberg and Sören Holmberg

Social Science Quarterly, 2002, vol. 83, issue 4, 1079-1085

Abstract: Objective. The purpose of this article was to test the generality of wishful thinking by comparing mass and elite beliefs concerning the future of nuclear power in Sweden. Methods. Data from 11 (1986–1996) surveys of the public and a 1988 survey of the Swedish Parliament that included questions concerning preference and expectation regarding nuclear power were examined. Results. A tendency toward wishful thinking occurred consistently across years among the masses, but was considerably stronger among the political elite (members of parliament). The anti–nuclear segment of the public showed a weakened tendency to expect a preferred outcome. Conclusion. Ambiguity of the future outcome, involvement, and knowledge are discussed as key factors in determining the level of wishful thinking in a given context.

Date: 2002
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