Civil Wars and Party Systems

John Ishiyama

Social Science Quarterly, 2014, vol. 95, issue 2, 425-447

Abstract: type="main">

This article examines the effects of civil wars on the characteristics of postconflict party systems, in terms of fractionalization, whether a dominant party emerges, and party systems stability.

Data were collected for 92 developing countries, 44 of which experienced a civil war from 1975 to 2009. Regression and logistic regression analyses are conducted to examine the impact of civil wars, while controlling for a number of other variables.

This article finds no relationship between civil war and fractionalization, but does find that intense, bloodier civil wars tend to produce party systems that are dominant-party systems with less electoral volatility than transitional states that did not experience a civil war.

These results suggest support for the argument that particularly bloody civil wars are likely to have an especially powerful freezing effect on party systems (and may not lead to fully competitive party politics).

Date: 2014
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