Using Changes in U.S. Immigration Laws to Estimate the Effect of Deportations on Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Garfield O. Blake

Social Science Quarterly, 2017, vol. 98, issue 5, 1554-1570

Abstract: Objectives The objective of this article is to obtain estimates of the effect of criminal deportees from the United States on home country crime that are not affected by the presence of simultaneity. Simultaneity between criminal deportation from the United States and crime rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) makes it difficult to isolate the causal effect of changes in the number of criminal deportees from the United States on crime in LAC. Method To break that simultaneity, this article uses the timing of changes to U.S. immigration laws as an instrument for changes in the number of criminal deportees. Result Increases in criminal deportations are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in years when there are changes to U.S. immigration laws. The resulting elasticity is two times greater than the OLS estimate. One of every 14 prisoners deported as a result of changes in U.S. immigration legislation is associated with one homicide per year in the receiving country. Conclusion The process of accomplishing deportation can be greatly improved if the United States provides the receiving countries with more information on deportees, including more detailed criminal records and increased assistance with the resettlement and reintegration process, especially if they are not allowed to be incarcerated upon returning home.

Date: 2017
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