Voting Turnout and Referendum Outcomes on Same‐Sex Marriage, 1998–2015

Christopher A. Simon, Richard E. Matland, Dane G. Wendell and Raymond Tatalovich

Social Science Quarterly, 2018, vol. 99, issue 4, 1522-1534

Abstract: Objectives This analysis of referenda voting on same‐sex marriage (SSM) from 1998 until Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) focuses on the impact of turnout, which has been neglected in previous research on gay marriage referenda. Methods We employ OLS regression analysis with clustered standard errors by state to analyze voting on SSM referenda with eight county‐level variables and seven state‐level variables. Our novel data set includes 2,610 counties across 34 different states. Results Higher referendum turnout consistently produced less support for banning SSM. Additionally, we find that the gap between the polling numbers and referendum results was caused by low turnout levels. A higher turnout would reduce that gap, so that polling would have more closely approximated public opinion. Conclusions These findings suggest that impact of voter turnout on public policy is understudied, and including turnout measures may help future researchers better understand the electoral behavior of morality policy referenda.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12518

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:socsci:v:99:y:2018:i:4:p:1522-1534

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0038-4941

Access Statistics for this article

Social Science Quarterly is currently edited by Robert L. Lineberry

More articles in Social Science Quarterly from Southwestern Social Science Association
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().