Prognose van het autopark met behulp van een “diffusion”‐model*

J. B. Vemtetten

Statistica Neerlandica, 1964, vol. 18, issue 4, 463-471

Abstract: In a diffusion‐model the distribution of purchases of a good over different income classes forms the starting point of analysis. For luxuries the distribution function is continuously increasing. In this case increasing incomes will always lead to a greater demand or a greater stock of the good. Moreover, the function as a whole will shift to lower income classes for goods for which the consumer's acceptance is not yet complete. This causes an autonomous increase of the demand over time; an increase which is not dependent on the rise of income. The lack of data, however, restricts the possibility of using the model. Under certain conditions transformation of the model into a form suited for time‐series analysis, is possible. In this form the model has been applied to the stock of motor‐cars, which are in use by families. From this analysis forecasts of the number of motor‐cars for 1970 and 1980 have been computed.

Date: 1964
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