Network planning with stochastic activity durations, an evaluation of PERT

F.A. Lootsma

Statistica Neerlandica, 1966, vol. 20, issue 1, 43-69

Abstract: Summary This paper deals with an examination of the well‐known Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Every activity duration is supposed to have a gamma distribution whose parameter values are determined from the optimistic, the most likely, and the pessimistic estimate of the duration. The expectation and the variance of the earliest event times are computed according to a method given by CHARLES E. CLARK in reference 2. One can then estimate the risk that a PERT planning, which is essentially a planning according to the critical path method, will be infeasible. During the examination it was found that errors in the pessimistic estimates may have serious consequences.

Date: 1966
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