Voorspellen van het weer

S. W. Visser

Statistica Neerlandica, 1952, vol. 6, issue 4, 235-244

Abstract: Prediction of the weather. The daily predictions of the minimum temperature to be expected during the night, which have been published by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute since 21st September, 1952, fulfil the statistical requirements, but on closer inspection it appears that the weak point in these predictions is the tolerance factor. The correlation coefficient of the expected and the observed tolerance during 86 observation days is only + 0.21. By replacing the tolerance factor in the prediction by its average value the Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute at De Bilt attains a correlation coefficient of + 0.884 between the observed and the expected minimum temperature, while the result of the persistency test (tomorrow the same weather as to‐day) is + 0.760. The investigation into variation (fig. 2) indicates the natural differences between the coastal areas and the inland areas; the variation decreases from the coast to the inland areas. The temperature differences between Den Helder and De Bilt (fig. 3, curve H) during the winter (average values for approximately 1000 observation days) increase according as the minimum temperature at De Bilt decreases. This effect is also observed in the summer (1950 and very high temperatures in 1947). The high correlation coefficient attained proves the reliability of the predictions.

Date: 1952
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.1952.tb00994.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:stanee:v:6:y:1952:i:4:p:235-244

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0039-0402

Access Statistics for this article

Statistica Neerlandica is currently edited by Miroslav Ristic, Marijtje van Duijn and Nan van Geloven

More articles in Statistica Neerlandica from Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().