Reconciliation of seasonally adjusted data with applications to the Swedish quarterly national accounts

Suad Elezović and Yingfu Xie

Statistica Neerlandica, 2018, vol. 72, issue 4, 590-602

Abstract: Because of the nonlinearity of the seasonal adjustment procedure, the equality between an aggregate series and the sum of its components usually breaks down after seasonally adjusting the series separately. However, some users of official statistics still request consistency between the seasonally adjusted aggregate series and the sum of the corresponding subseries. To achieve the aggregation consistency, a general Denton‐type reconciliation procedure is proposed here. The additivity constraint is imposed on seasonally adjusted components balancing between magnitude and volatility of each series. Some evaluation criteria, based on a set of chosen minimization functions, are further discussed. The implementation and choice of approaches are discussed through a real example by reconciliation of time series in constant prices from the Swedish quarterly national accounts. Finally, some limitations of the method are outlined and possible future works are proposed.

Date: 2018
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