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Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis

Raphael Amit, Ian Domowitz and Chaim Fershtman

Strategic Management Journal, 1988, vol. 9, issue 5, 431-442

Abstract: An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.

Date: 1988
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